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NEW YORK - A nor’easter developing off the East Coast could bring snow to parts of New Jersey and Connecticut this weekend, but forecasters say New York City is likely to remain on the western edge of the storm, limiting snowfall unless the system shifts closer to shore.
What we know:
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the storm is expected to track offshore, keeping the core of heavy snow east of major cities along the I-95 corridor.
Current forecast guidance shows the highest snowfall totals lining up along the coast, while inland areas — including New York City — remain near a sharp cutoff zone where small changes in the storm’s track could significantly affect impacts.
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NYC Weather: Saturday morning forecast
Cold weather advisories are in effect across New York City as bitter temperatures lingers through the weekend.
Where snow is most likely in the New York Tri-State area this weekend
The highest risk for accumulating snow is across coastal New Jersey, including shore communities, with snow also likely in parts of coastal and eastern Connecticut.
In these areas, snowfall combined with gusty winds could lead to hazardous travel conditions, especially late Saturday into early Sunday.
Where impacts may be limited
In New York City, northeastern New Jersey, and inland portions of Connecticut, snowfall is expected to be lighter under the current forecast, with little accumulation or just an inch or two possible.
Forecasters caution that this region sits close to the storm’s cutoff zone, meaning a shift of just 50 miles east or west could change snowfall totals quickly.
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Wind and cold a concern for NYC
Even if snow largely misses New York City, strong winds and very cold air will affect the entire region this weekend. Gusty winds could contribute to blowing snow in coastal areas and make already cold temperatures feel even colder.
Wind chills are expected to drop into the single digits and teens, increasing the risk of icy spots on untreated roads and sidewalks.
New York City Emergency Management has issued a Weather Alert for Sunday in coordination with the National Weather Service.
"New Yorkers should take this cold weather seriously," New York City Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani said. "Temperatures are dangerously low, with icy conditions as a result, and even short trips can be dangerous. If you can, stay indoors, keep warm, and limit time outside. If you need to travel, use public transportation and give yourself extra time."
In this scenario, the coastal low tracks east into the Atlantic Ocean away from the East Coast, producing the heaviest snow mostly offshore. This outcome would provide a glancing blow of snow along the coast with minimal impacts inland.
Timing: what to expect
Saturday: Clouds increase as the storm strengthens offshore, with cold and breezy conditions.
Saturday night into Sunday: Snow intensifies mainly east of New York City, with the strongest winds and coldest wind chills.
Sunday: Snow gradually tapers as the storm moves farther offshore, but cold and gusty winds linger.
RELATED: What is a nor’easter and a bomb cyclone? How major East Coast winter storms form
Why you should care:
Even if New York City avoids significant snowfall, nearby coastal areas could see dangerous winter conditions, and strong winds and extreme cold pose safety risks across the region.
Forecasters urge residents to stay updated in case the storm’s track changes.
What's next:
Meteorologists will continue refining the forecast through Saturday. Any shift closer to shore could bring heavier snow into the New York City area, while an eastward track would keep the heaviest impacts confined to the coast.
The Source: This article was written using information from the FOX Forecast Center and FOX Weather reporting.