NYC mid-winter weather forecast: Were the groundhogs' predictions correct?
2026 mid-winter weather outlook
FOX 5 NY's chief meteorologist Nick Gregory breaks down his 2026 mid-winter weather outlook.
NEW YORK CITY - Groundhog Day kicked off with some disappointing news from Staten Island Chuck and Punxsutawney Phil, but do they align with our meteorologist's predictions?
What we know:
Both famed groundhogs saw their shadow on Monday morning, signaling six more weeks of winter as the New York City region continues to grapple with dangerous cold and cleanup from last month's major snowstorm.
Groundhog Day: Staten Island Chuck's prediction
Staten Island Chuck, the Staten Island Zoo’s famous groundhog, says we are in for six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow Monday morning.
Now that may be Chuck and Phil's predictions, but FOX 5 NY's chief meteorologist Nick Gregory broke down what to expect in his 2026 mid-winter weather outlook.
Winter in NYC so far
The backstory:
Gregory reports that the average temperature in December 2025 was 33.8 degrees, which was about 5 degrees below average. The average temperature for January was 30 degrees, which was only 2 degrees lower than the average.
Snowfall totals are a different story. According to the meteorologist, both December and January saw over the average of their typical snowfall amounts. The total snowfall the city has seen so far is about 21 inches, which is nearly double what the average amount is.
Fractured polar vortex
Big picture view:
"You can blame the polar vortex for a lot of this."
The fractured polar vortex Gregory is referring to is the reason behind both the frigid temperatures and large amounts of snowfall the city has seen in recent months.
Are we going to have an early spring this year?
What's next:
Unfortunately, no, according to Gregory. Due to the fractured polar vortex, arctic air is likely to continue to affect the eastern half of the country.
Gregory expects the bitter cold to continue "at least until the middle part of February." He does, however, believe that average temperatures could make a return at some point in March.
The Source: This article includes reporting from FOX 5 NY's Nick Gregory.