Sherrill vs Ciattarelli: Who leads in the NJ polls ahead of Wednesday's debate?

New Jersey governor?s race tightens as Sherrill leads Kelly in new poll

With less than two months until Election Day, Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a double-digit lead over Republican Jack Kelly, according to a recent poll. Both candidates are campaigning hard on affordability and public safety, while independents, nearly split, could ultimately decide the outcome. FOX 5 NY's Antwan Lewis has the latest.

NEW JERSEY - Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli will go head-to-head on Wednesday in their final debate for New Jersey governor.

Here's what to watch for in the debate:

Shutdown, Hudson River tunnel

Dig deeper:

The candidates are taking different approaches on the federal government shutdown, which started last week.

One key difference centers on the Hudson River rail project, which has been decades in the planning and would replace more than century-old tunnels connecting New Jersey and New York City.

Release of military records

Another topic likely to be raised in the debate stems from two related but separate stories about Sherrill's time in the Navy.

Representative Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat from New Jersey, during an interview in New York, US, on Friday, May 2, 2025. Sherrill, who is also a former federal prosecutor, announced her candidacy last year for New Jersey governor, citing her leadershi

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One story detailed how Sherrill's mostly unredacted military record was released to a Republican operative close to Ciattarelli's campaign. The other centers on news that Sherrill did not participate in the 1994 graduation from the Naval Academy amid fallout that year from a well-documented cheating scandal.

Affordability, who's to blame

Both candidates are hammering the high cost of living in New Jersey. Sherrill has said she'd issue an executive order freezing utility rates, which have climbed steadily over the summer. Ciattarelli talks about capping sky-high property taxes as a percentage of home value.

The backstory:

New Jersey has gone Democratic in presidential and Senate contests for decades, but it's alternated between Republicans and Democrats in its odd-year elections for governor. Going back to the 1980s, voters went with the nominee from the party opposite of the president’s. But term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy broke that pattern in 2021 when he won reelection narrowly over Ciattarelli, now in his third campaign for governor.

RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - MAY 10: Jack Ciattarelli and Gianni Russo attend 2025 Paisan Con at The Williams Center on May 10, 2025 in Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Bobby Bank/Getty Images)

The state, however, has grown more conservative in recent years, with Trump losing last November to Democrat Kamala Harris by just 6 points — a dramatic swing from his nearly 13-point deficit in 2016.

In their first debate, the candidates clashed pointedly, with Ciattarelli calling his opponent's promises vague and dishonest and Sherrill tying Ciattarelli to Trump and questioning the former business owner and accountant's math skills. Trump endorsed Ciattarelli in the GOP primary, saying he’d gone "ALL IN" and was "now 100% (PLUS!)" on the president's "Make America Great Again" agenda, despite past criticism.

Who is running for NJ governor 2025?

When is Election Day in NJ? Timeline, key dates

Tuesday, Oct. 25: Voter registration deadline for the general election.
Saturday, Oct. 25 through Sunday, Nov. 2: The early voting period.
Tuesday, Nov. 4: Election Day. Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.

You can check your registration status online here.

To find your local poll site, click here.

Sherrill vs Ciattarelli polls: Who's ahead?

A Fox News survey of New Jersey voters found Sherrill ahead of Ciattarelli by 8 percentage points among likely voters (50-42%) and 7 points among the larger sample of registered voters (48-41%) – both lead just outside the margin of sampling error. The poll was conducted Sept. 25-29.
An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of New Jersey voters found 43% of voters support Sherrill and Ciattarelli, respectively; 11% of voters were undecided. The poll was conducted Sept. 22-23.