2025 NYC fall & winter weather outlook: Snow, temperature, more predictions
NEW YORK CITY - Welcome to October!
It's that time of the year again for cooler weather, earlier sunset times and, of course – snow.
FOX 5 NY's Nick Gregory shared his fall and winter weather outlook for the New York City Tri-State in 2025, including his early snow total predictions.
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Are temperatures warmer or colder than average?
Temperatures were cooler in the early half of September and warmer in the second half, leading to temperatures being a bit below average.
October temperature outlook (FOX Weather)
The average temperature should be 82, with an average low of 65.7. Currently, we’re at a mean of 73.8, but that's 2.3 degrees below average.
Are we experiencing an El Niño or La Niña weather pattern?
September saw 2.21" of rain, but the average is 4.56." So, what happened?
This map shows where tropical cyclone activity tends to occur in October. (FOX Weather)
What is La Niña?
La Niña occurs when cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean influence global weather patterns. This phenomenon typically brings drier and warmer conditions to the southern U.S., while regions like the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast experience cooler and wetter weather.
What is El Niño?
Meanwhile, when above-average sea surface temperatures occur in the eastern Pacific Ocean, it’s known as an El Niño phase.
What about neutral El Niño or La Niña?
Gregory says this is what we’ve been in; it's brought milder temperatures pretty much across the southern Florida area and cooler than normal in the Northeast. A neutral La Niña essentially traps moisture in the south.
Can we expect wetter or drier conditions?
Moving forward in the fall, Gregory says we're going to be talking about more of a transition to La Niña.
October precipitation outlook (FOX Weather)
So, the northern jet stream becomes much more active, which means we'll see the potential for warmer than normal weather to the south, even up into our part of the country, and wetter than average normal conditions off to our west. The season looks to be mild, and probably going to be a bit on the drier side too.
How will this season’s outlook affect leaf peeping?
Our stretch of dry weather temperatures have been delaying the start of fall foliage and making the colors less vibrant than usual. In contrast, wet forecasts have been leading to on-time and more vivid colors.
Average Peak Fall Foliage (FOX Weather)
However, we also have to consider the effect of warmer-than-average temperatures - which tend to cause leaves to change earlier in the season.
What sort of averages do we see in October, November and December?
October has an average of about 64 degrees or so for the high, an average of about 51 for the low.
It cools down to an average of about 54 in November for the high, an average of about 42.
In December, we have an average high of 44 with an average low of 38, 33.8 degrees.
Are there any early predictions for winter 2025-26?
Gregory's early call for a winter forecast – it looks like a weak La Niña, which means it's going to be milder than average weather with a colder first part of the winter. It also means it will be harder to predict its impacts.
Average first freeze date (FOX Weather)
"Certainly, I think we'll have more snow in the recent years, probably a little closer to average," Gregory says, with the average being 28 inches.
Farmers' Almanac 2025-2026 outlook (FOX Weather)
For contrast, the Old Farmer's Almanac says a milder and drier winter is ahead with most snow falling around the holidays and later months. Last winter, New York City saw over 15 inches of snow.