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How Siberian snow could trigger a harsher winter in NYC
Winter weather this year in NYC could have an extra chill, and it's all because of snow in Siberia. FOX 5 NY's Audrey Puente explains.
NEW YORK CITY - Winter weather this year in New York City could have an extra chill, and it's all because of snow in Siberia, according to FOX 5 NY's Audrey Puente.
How does snow in Siberia impact NYC weather?
Dig deeper:
Each fall, meteorologists keep a close watch on Siberia, where snow cover builds across thousands of miles. This year, the snowpack has expanded quickly and early, and that could be a signal for what's ahead in the New York City Tri-State area.
The early snowpack near the North Pole acts like a giant mirror, reflecting sunlight and cooling the ground. The chill builds a dense, cold air mass over Eurasia, and the more snow, the stronger the effect, setting off a chain reaction that can influence weather patterns half a world away.
People walk through The Mall as snow falls in Central Park at night on February 08, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Craig T Fruchtman/Getty Images)
Research shows a strong connection between October snow in Eurasia and the behavior of the polar vortex, the swirling band of winds that keeps Arctic air contained. When the vortex is strong, the cold stays locked up north, leaving much of North America with milder winters.
But rapid Siberian snow growth can build what is called the "Siberian High," and that system pumps energy into the stratosphere, disrupting and weakening the polar vortex. When it wobbles or splits, it opens the door for cross-polar flow, allowing frigid air to surge south into the United States. For the Tri-State area, that can mean periods of intense snow or intense cold, rather, and a greater chance for snow.
Are there any early predictions for winter 2025-26?
Local perspective:
FOX 5 NY's Nick Gregory's early call for a winter forecast – it looks like a weak La Niña, which means it's going to be milder than average weather with a colder first part of the winter. It also means it will be harder to predict its impacts.
Average first freeze date (FOX Weather)
"Certainly, I think we'll have more snow in the recent years, probably a little closer to average," Gregory says, with the average being 28 inches.
Farmers' Almanac 2025-2026 outlook (FOX Weather)
For contrast, the Old Farmer's Almanac says a milder and drier winter is ahead with most snow falling around the holidays and later months. Last winter, New York City saw over 15 inches of snow.