10+ inches of snow possible for NYC, NJ this weekend: Latest forecast, models, timeline

NEW YORK CITY - New York City could see over 10 inches of snow this weekend as a winter storm threatens to bring heavy snowfall and colder air to parts of the Northeast, according to forecasters.

NEW YORK CITY SNOW FORECAST: TIMELINE | PREDICTED TOTALS | IMPACTS l LIVE UPDATES l LIVE RADAR

• MORE: FOX 5 NY Weather Center
• MORE: What is the polar vortex? Why it matters as snow and Arctic cold threaten the Northeast
• MORE: New York, New Jersey winter weather checklist: How to prepare for snow and ice this weekend

The National Weather Service (NWS) says snow will likely begin on Sunday, with hazardous conditions potentially lingering into early Monday and impacting travel across the region.

When will snow start in NYC?

Timeline:

Snow is expected to begin Sunday as colder air moves into the area. The NWS forecasts cloudy conditions with snow likely throughout the day, with a high near 22 degrees and a 70% chance of precipitation.

• Stay connected with FOX LOCAL. For winter storm coverage—Download Now.

Snow is expected to continue into Sunday night, mainly before 1 a.m., with temperatures falling to around 16 degrees. The chance of snow on Sunday night is 60%. 

By Monday, snowfall is expected to taper off, though a 40% chance of snow remains. Skies are forecast to become partly sunny, with a high near 26 degrees.

How much snow is predicted for this weekend?

By the numbers:

Forecast models show much of the New York City area could see between 6 and 10 inches of snow, with some areas potentially seeing higher totals if the storm intensifies or slows. Areas north and west of the city, including parts of the Hudson Valley and northern New Jersey, could see 4 to 9 inches of snow.

"Right now, the potential snow totals for most of us are in that 6 to 10 inches-plus range," FOX 5 NY meteorologist Mike Woods said. "As you start heading north and west, you’re looking at about 4 to 9 inches."

Woods said those amounts would likely prompt winter storm warnings across much of the Tri-State region.

What are the impacts?

Meteorologists say the storm is expected to come together as Arctic air pushes into the region and moisture moves north from a developing low-pressure system over the southeastern United States.

"Once that cold air gets in place, the moisture gets pulled on top of it, and that’s how we get a solid snowstorm," Woods said.

The heaviest snow is expected from Sunday into early Monday, which could lead to slick roads, reduced visibility and travel delays, particularly for the Monday morning commute.

Forecasters caution that while confidence is increasing, snow totals and timing could still change.

"It’s been trending more likely," Woods said. "But it’s still several days away, and sometimes these systems do shift."

Why are meteorologists watching the polar vortex?

As the storm approaches, meteorologists are also watching the polar vortex, a large area of low pressure and cold air that typically remains over the Arctic.

When the polar vortex weakens or shifts, it can allow Arctic air to move farther south, increasing the chances of prolonged cold and snow across parts of the United States.

While the polar vortex itself does not cause storms, its influence can help create the conditions needed for winter weather events like the one expected to impact the Northeast this weekend.

Residents are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as the storm approaches.

What we don't know:

How much snow will New York get? Will I-95 travel come to a standstill? Are major Northeast airports going to see big cancellations? These are all questions that still need answers as the storm's evolution becomes more clear.

Forecasters are closely monitoring trends in how the different ingredients are coming together thousands of miles away from the East Coast and how computer forecast guidance is modeling those ingredients. Right now, it's still too early to say exactly how much snow will fall along I-95 in the Northeast corridor, but confidence is increasing that a plowable snow event is about to occur this weekend.

Because the track of the overall storm and its individual pieces remain unclear, there's no way to determine exactly how much snow will fall and when. The FOX Forecast Center is analyzing new forecast data this morning and will be updating the snow forecast later today.

FOX Weather live updates

NYC weather radar

Click HERE for more information.