NEW YORK - New Yorkers will soon look to an unlikely source for their long-range weather forecast: a groundhog.
Groundhog Day, held every Feb. 2, has been a staple of American folklore since 1886, when Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, hosted the first recorded ceremony.
What happens when a groundhog sees its shadow?
The backstory:
According to tradition, if the groundhog sees its shadow, winter will last for six more weeks; if no shadow appears, spring will arrive early. Over the decades, dozens of groundhogs – and even a few alternative weather-predicting animals – have joined the annual forecasting festivities.
NEW YORK, NY - FEBRUARY 02: Staten Island Chuck, a groundhog who, according to tradition, looks for his shadow to predict whether or not the region will experience six more weeks of winter or the coming of spring, looks on at the Staten Island Zoo o …
About 84% of the time, Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, indicating more winter. If you'd prefer your winter forecast to come from a more northern woodchuck, you can look to Charles G. Hogg also known as "Staten Island Chuck."
How accurate is Groundhog Day?
By the numbers:
While many groundhogs make predictions, few can match Staten Island Chuck’s track record. Chuck resides at the Staten Island Zoo, where he has been forecasting the weather since 1981. Over the past two decades, Chuck has achieved an 85% accuracy rate, placing him ahead of all other U.S. groundhogs.
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2026 mid-winter weather outlook
FOX 5 NY's chief meteorologist Nick Gregory breaks down his 2026 mid-winter weather outlook.
Chuck’s predictions are based on whether he sees his shadow at the zoo’s annual Groundhog Day ceremony. In 2025, Chuck did not see his shadow, pitting him against Phil. This marked the tenth consecutive year that Chuck failed to see his shadow.
How does Chuck compare to other groundhogs?
Across the nation, various groundhogs vie for meteorological supremacy. Here’s how Chuck measures up to some of his competitors:
- Staten Island Chuck (NY): 85% accuracy
- General Beauregard Lee (GA): 80% accuracy
- Lander Lil (WY, Prairie Dog Statue): 75% accuracy
- Malverne Mel (NY): 55% accuracy
- Holtsville Hal (NY): 50% accuracy
- Punxsutawney Phil (PA): 35% accuracy