More Americans are 'not confident' that Social Security will be available, poll finds
FILE - Blank Social Security checks are run through a printer at the U.S. Treasury printing facility Feb. 11, 2005, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by William Thomas Cain/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON - More Americans, particularly Democrats, say they aren’t confident that Social Security will be available to them in the future, according to a new poll.
The poll comes as the Social Security Administration undergoes massive changes and staffing cuts ushered in by the Trump administration.
Here’s what to know:
Poll: More Americans ‘not confident’ in Social Security’s availability
What we know:
An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, conducted in April, found that the share of older Americans who are "not very" or "not at all" confident has risen somewhat since 2023.
About 3 in 10 U.S. adults age 60 or older are "not very" or "not at all" confident that Social Security benefits will be there for them when they need it, up from about 2 in 10 in an AP-NORC poll conducted in 2023, according to the most recent survey.
Older Americans are generally more confident that Social Security will be available to them than younger adults are, according to the poll. About half of U.S. adults under age 30 are "not very" or "not at all" confident that Social Security will be there for them, which is unchanged from 2023, according to the poll.
Social security benefits to rise 2.5% in 2025
Social Security recipients will receive a 2.5% increase in their monthly checks in 2025. Analysts had predicted a 2.5% bump for 2025, which is smaller than increases in the previous two years and reflects moderating inflation. Recipients received a 3.2% increase in their benefits in 2024, after a historically large 8.7% benefit increase in 2023, brought on by record 40-year-high inflation.
Dig deeper:
The shift looks different depending on older Americans' political party. There has been a substantial decrease in confidence among older Democrats. About half of Democrats age 60 or older are "not very" or "not at all confident" that Social Security will be there for them when they need it, a sizable swing from 2023, when only about 1 in 10 said they were "not very" or "not at all" confident.
Meanwhile, older Republicans have become more confident that Social Security will be there for them, according to the poll. In contrast with older Democrats, about 6 in 10 Republicans age 60 or older are "extremely" or "very" confident that Social Security will be there when they need it, up from only about one-quarter who thought this in 2023.
Big picture view:
The findings from the AP-NORC poll highlight the partisan divide in the ongoing debate over Social Security, which serves millions of people.
The backstory:
When the 2023 poll was conducted, Democratic President Joe Biden was in office, which may have contributed to older Democrats' confidence in the program. Now, large changes including mass federal worker layoffs, cuts to programs and office closures are being ushered in by Republican President Donald Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by billionaire adviser Elon Musk.
Musk, who recently said he is preparing to wind down his role with the Trump administration, garnered widespread condemnation when, in March, he said on a podcast interview with Joe Rogan that the Social Security program is a "Ponzi scheme."
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What they're saying:
Such comments have caused some voters to feel less confident in the future of the program, according to interviews conducted by the Associated Press.
Dennis Riera, a 65-year-old Republican from Huntington Beach, California, said Musk’s comments had made him feel very worried.
"It’s really a shame that something that so many people have relied on for so many generations is being looked at as a Ponzi scheme," Riera told the AP. He has not yet retired from his job as a security official in the entertainment sector and doesn’t know when he will be able to.
"What is their purpose in trying to undermine this institution?" he said.
However, Linda Seck, a 78-year-old Republican and retired nurse from Saline Township in Michigan, said she’s very confident about the future of Social Security.
"When I was in college, financial planners were telling us not to depend on Social Security, but here we are more than 50 years later and it's still going," she said.
Will Social Security run out?
By the numbers:
The Social Security Administration has for decades moved closer toward its "go-broke date," when it will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in 2035, according to the 2024 Social Security and Medicare trustees report.
Social Security would then only be able to pay 83% of benefits. A common misconception is that Social Security would be completely unable to pay benefits once it reaches its go-broke date.
Roughly 72.5 million people, including retirees and children, receive Social Security benefits.
The Source: This story was reported based on the AP-NORC poll of 1,260 adults, conducted April 17-21, 2025. It used a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The story was reported from Cincinnati, and the Associated Press contributed.