Severe storms, flash flood threat for NYC area

NEW YORK CITY - A severe weather threat is once again on the table for the New York City area during the Tuesday evening commute, with periods of heavy rain, damaging wind gusts and thunderstorms all possible.

"The evening rush could be quite messy with some heavy rains, perhaps some flooding rains out there as well," FOX 5 NY's Mike Woods said.

JUMP TO:

• Severe weather threat impacts
• Severe weather threat timeline
• Local New York City radar

Today's weather NYC: Potential storm impacts

Local perspective:

The high humidity, combined with a heat index of over 90 degrees, will create muggy and oppressive conditions ahead of the storms. Heat alerts were issued for the Tri-State area from 10 a.m. until 8 p.m.

Meanwhile, the intensity of the rain has prompted flash flood watches for the region beginning at 2 p.m. Tuesday. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center (WPC) issued a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk.

The flood risk is being driven by rain rates that could reach 2 inches per hour, enhanced by the tropical moisture left behind by Tropical Depression Chantal's remnants, which have moved off the East Coast after bringing flooding to North Carolina. The flood threat will last through 2 a.m. Wednesday.

Dig deeper:

The main threats are expected to be damaging wind gusts in excess of 58 mph, as well as small hail.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a Level 2 out 5 risk of severe thunderstorms. The National Weather Service (NWS) defines the slight category as "increased confidence that some storms will contain damaging winds, severe hail, and/or tornado potential."

National Weather Service NYC

"The threat for a severe thunderstorm is higher across NE, NJ, NYC metro, and Lower Hudson Valley," the NWS said.

Severe thunderstorm watch

The agency has issued a severe thunderstorm watch for parts of the Tri-State area until 9 p.m.

When will it rain in NYC? Timeline

Timeline:

Storms are expected to begin mid-Tuesday afternoon ahead of a cold front that will move through the Northeast:

• Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 95. The chance of precipitation is 60%.

• Tuesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2 a.m., then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Wednesday: A slight chance of showers before 8 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. The chance of precipitation is 30%.

• Wednesday night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. The chance of precipitation is 40%.
• Thursday: A chance of showers before 11 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 77. The chance of precipitation is 70%.
• Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 11 p.m., then a chance of showers between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Cloudy, with a low around 73. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Friday: A 30% chance of showers after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81.
• Friday night: A 30% chance of showers before 8 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.

What they're saying:

"Expect scattered storms with some heavy downpours later this afternoon," Woods said. "More storms will follow in the days to come."

What's next:

"Today is not our only chance," Woods said. "We still have summer storms in our forecast beyond today as well."

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