US kids of divorce earn less, face more teen pregnancy and jail: study

How much does a divorce cost?

Going through a divorce can be incredibly difficult, no matter the reason. And the financial cost varies widely depending on the circumstances.

LOS ANGELES - Divorce in early childhood can shape a person’s future in profound ways, a new study suggests. 

Children whose parents split before age 5 face significantly reduced earnings as adults—and an increased risk of teen pregnancy, incarceration, and even premature death. The research, released this month, highlights how a family breakup often triggers long-lasting economic and social ripple effects.

The study, conducted by economists from UC Merced, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the University of Maryland, draws from a large data set linking federal tax records, census data, and Social Security information for children born between 1988 and 1993. Its findings offer one of the most detailed views yet of how early-life divorce shapes adult outcomes in America.

What are the long-term effects of childhood divorce?

By the numbers:

The study found that children whose parents divorced before they turned 5 had, on average, 13% lower income by age 27 compared to peers whose parents stayed together. If a divorce occurred after age 18, researchers saw little to no long-term financial impact.

For those who experienced parental divorce before age 15:

• Teen pregnancy rates increased, but the effect faded by age 20.
• Incarceration rates rose, with the impact disappearing after age 20.
• Marriage likelihood by age 25 was unaffected.

The study found no meaningful differences in outcomes by race or ethnicity.

What causes these outcomes?

The backstory:

The researchers identified three major factors contributing to the impact of divorce:

1. Household income loss – Divorce typically cuts household income in half as families split and attempt to rebuild separately.
2. Worse neighborhoods – Post-divorce families often relocate to lower-income areas with fewer opportunities.
3. Reduced parental access – Children are often farther from one parent or see them less due to increased work hours and logistical challenges.

These factors explained 25% to 60% of the negative effects observed in children’s lives, the study said.

What they're saying:

"These changes in family life reveal that, rather than an isolated legal shock, divorce represents a bundle of treatments — including income loss, neighborhood changes, and family restructuring — each of which might affect children’s outcomes," the study’s authors wrote.

Sociologist Philip Cohen, who was not involved in the research, noted that the study can’t capture emotional impacts. Still, he emphasized that parents often weigh serious trade-offs.

FILE - A close-up of wedding rings being exchanged during a marriage ceremony—a symbolic moment as new research highlights how early childhood divorce can affect future relationships and long-term outcomes. (Photo by Jonathan Brady - WPA Pool/Getty Images)

"I believe parents are aware divorce may have harmful consequences for their children," Cohen told the Associated Press. "They make difficult judgments about what’s in their own best interest, as well as the interest of their children."

One man who wasn’t part of the study, Brandon Hellan of St. Louis, said his parents’ divorce when he was in his early 20s made him wary of commitment for years. "I treated relationships like they were rentals," he said.

Why you should care:

Nearly one-third of American children experience their parents’ divorce before reaching adulthood. While many go on to thrive—like Barack Obama and Vice President JD Vance—the study underscores how divorce often triggers reduced stability and opportunity at critical developmental stages.