COVID projections in NJ show more cases, hospitalizations than spring peak

NEW JERSEY - Two projection models show New Jersey is headed for a higher number of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations than at the peak of the pandemic in the spring.

The worst day could be on January 14, 2021, with an estimated 12,595 new cases reported in that single day, according to a new predictive model from the New Jersey Department of Health.  That would mark two weeks from New Year's Day and would be about double the number of new daily cases the state is reporting now.

Speaking during a briefing from Trenton on Wednesday, Gov. Phil Murphy shared the alarming predictions from the Department of Health and the Office of Innovation. The agencies analyzed current and past data to create a 'moderate case scenario' and a 'worst-case scenario.'

The DOH estimates 8,747 people could be hospitalized with the coronavirus across the Garden State on January 13, 2021, while the Office of Innovation estimates a possible peak of 8,689 hospitalizations on Feb. 5, 2021.

The numbers are slightly better for the 'moderate case scenario.'

"The Department of Health estimates a high of 9,120 reported new cases on January 13," said Murphy. "The Office of Innovation would see us top out at 7,180, and importantly, earlier on Christmas Day. These are still very big numbers and, so too, are the hospital numbers that these cases would lead to."

While he acknowledged numbers appear alarming, Murphy said the cases would not overwhelm the state's healthcare system.

In the model for the 'moderate case scenario,' the DOH estimates 6,333 COVID patients across the state on January 14 while the Office of Innovation estimates there will be 5,752 patients on January 31.

"Remember the peak in the spring on April 14, that was 8,270. Both of those numbers are several hundred numbers higher than we saw at the worst of it in the spring," said Murphy.

The only solace, Murphy added, in the worst-case scenario, is that the numbers of people in intensive care units and those on ventilators would be lower than during the peak in the spring.

"The Department of Health still has peak numbers of 1,679 ICU beds and 1,088 ventilators in use while the Office of Innovation models estimates sobering peaks of 1,632 ICU patients and 1,037 ventilators," said Murphy.