Weather models predict scenarios for upcoming winter storm hitting NY

NEW YORK - A potential winter storm could be brewing this weekend. FOX 5 NY's meteorologists Nick Gregory and Audrey Puente discuss what the weather models are currently predicting.

JUMP TO: Models l Timeline l Impacts l Uncertainty l Live updates

What is the European model saying?

What we know:

The European model shows heavy snow blanketing much of the central and eastern portions of the country, including the New York City area, especially this Sunday.

The snow would last into Monday morning, according to this model.

What is the American model saying?

The American model shows that the storm might barely affect the Northeast region.

What is the Canadian model saying?

The Canadian model, however, shows that several inches of snow could hit the Northeast this weekend.

This is the "fastest model," Puente explains, meaning that it predicts the snow will hit the region faster than the other two.

Are we getting snow this weekend?

Timeline:

The National Weather Service (NWS) says the upcoming snow storm could approach the region Sunday into Monday.

• Saturday night: A 40% chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.
• Sunday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 20. The chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Sunday night: A 40% chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15.

How much snow is expected on Sunday?

Local perspective:

According to the NWS, the winter storm will produce heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain over much of the United States before shifting toward the East Coast through Sunday. 

As of Tuesday night, the NWS reports that the New York City area has around a 60% chance of seeing over 6 inches of snow.

Snow prediction for this weekend

What we don't know:

"Uncertainty remains regarding the location and magnitude of this winter storm's various components," the NWS said in a post on Facebook.

Specific details regarding timing, amounts and extent of impacts will become more clear as the week progresses.

About the two models

Dig deeper:

In the U.S., the two most popular models you'll see mentioned on social media are the Global Forecast System (GFS), also colloquially known as "The American Model", and the model run by the ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, colloquially known as "The European" model, or "Euro" for short.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration runs the GFS with support from several other U.S. research and government entities. The ECMWF is based in England but is a private consortium supported by 34 European countries. 

There are different models run by government weather agencies, but the Euro and GFS are the two you'll hear about most often.

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