How accurate is Groundhog Day? Punxsutawney Phil vs Staten Island Chuck
NEW YORK - Every year on Feb. 2, Americans look to an unlikely source for their long-range weather forecast: a groundhog.
The most famous of these furry meteorologists is Punxsutawney Phil, but for New Yorkers, the real star of the show is Staten Island Chuck.
With one of the best accuracy rates in the nation, Chuck has built a reputation as the most reliable groundhog in the game. So, how accurate is Groundhog Day, really? And how does Chuck stack up against his competitors?
The most accurate groundhog
By the numbers:
While many groundhogs make predictions, few can match Staten Island Chuck’s track record. Officially known as Charles G. Hogg, Chuck resides at the Staten Island Zoo, where he has been forecasting the weather since 1981.
Groundhog handler AJ Derume holds Punxsutawney Phil, who saw his shadow, predicting a late spring during the 136th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2022 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
Over the past two decades, Chuck has achieved an 85% accuracy rate, placing him ahead of all other U.S. groundhogs, including Punxsutawney Phil, whose accuracy lags at 35%. Chuck’s predictions are based on whether he sees his shadow at the zoo’s annual Groundhog Day ceremony.
How does Chuck compare to other groundhogs?
Across the U.S., various groundhogs vie for meteorological supremacy. Here’s how Chuck measures up to some of his competitors:
- Staten Island Chuck (NY): 85% accuracy
- General Beauregard Lee (GA): 80% accuracy
- Lander Lil (WY, Prairie Dog Statue): 75% accuracy
- Malverne Mel (NY): 55% accuracy
- Holtsville Hal (NY): 50% accuracy
- Punxsutawney Phil (PA): 35% accuracy