3 weeks from election: NYC mayoral poll after Adams leaves race

NEW YORK - With Election Day less than a month away, the question hanging over New York City’s mayoral race is whether former Governor Andrew Cuomo can mount a comeback — and whether Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani can hold on to his lead.

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, Cuomo has gained momentum since Mayor Eric Adams dropped out, reshaping what once looked like a settled race. But as the campaign enters its final stretch, the numbers suggest that momentum alone may not be enough to close Mamdani’s double-digit edge.

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NYC mayoral poll

By the numbers:

The poll shows Democrat Zohran Mamdani leading with 46% of likely voters. Independent Andrew Cuomo follows at 33%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa trails with 15% support.

In Quinnipiac’s previous survey on Sept. 10, when Adams was still in the race, Mamdani had 45%, Cuomo 23%, Sliwa 15%, and Adams 12%. 

The new numbers suggest Cuomo picked up most of Adams’ supporters but still trails Mamdani by double digits, underscoring a race that has shifted on the surface but not in structure.

"The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven’t," said Mary Snow, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact."

Who's voting for whom? 

Dig deeper:

According to the poll, Mamdani’s strongest support comes from Democrats (60%), Asian American voters (67%), voters aged 18 to 34 (62%), voters aged 35 to 49 (60%), and New Yorkers with no religious affiliation (69%).

Cuomo’s core supporters are Jewish voters, among whom he leads with 60%.

Sliwa’s base remains Republican, with 54% of GOP voters backing him.

Poll finds Cuomo with least amount of enthusiasm

The poll also finds enthusiasm highest among Mamdani’s supporters. 90% say they are very or somewhat enthusiastic, including 56% who are very enthusiastic. 85% of Sliwa supporters say the same, with 52% very enthusiastic.

69% of Cuomo supporters describe themselves as enthusiastic, with 28% very enthusiastic.

Key issues: housing, schools, safety, and the economy

The poll shows voters divided on major city issues:

Lowering housing costs: Mamdani 48%, Cuomo 25%, Sliwa 13%.

Managing public schools: Mamdani 41%, Cuomo 36%, Sliwa 16%.

Working with President Trump’s White House: Mamdani 35%, Cuomo 34%, Sliwa 22%.

Keeping families safe: Mamdani 35%, Cuomo 32%, Sliwa 23%.

Growing the city’s economy: Cuomo 41%, Mamdani 35%, Sliwa 15%.

Israel–Hamas conflict: Mamdani’s views most aligned with voters

The poll finds 41% of likely voters say Mamdani’s views on the Israel–Hamas conflict are closest to their own, compared with 26% for Cuomo and 13% for Sliwa.

Citywide, 43% of voters say their sympathies lie more with Palestinians, 22% with Israelis, and 34% are undecided. 

The survey concluded before President Trump announced the first phase of a peace plan between Israel and Hamas.

Netanyahu arrest pledge divides voters

When asked about Mamdani’s pledge to have the NYPD honor an International Criminal Court warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he visits New York, 43% of likely voters said they oppose the idea, while 38% support it and 19% are undecided.

Poll insights:

The Quinnipiac University poll surveyed 1,015 likely New York City voters from October 3 to 7, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The poll is directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D., and uses live interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones to ensure a representative sample.

2025 election for NYC mayor