Election Forecasts: Joe Biden is favored to defeat Donald Trump

Have you been obsessing over national and state polls and various election models? Here is a roundup of what some prominent forecasts concluded, which is that this is Joe Biden's race to lose. 

If Biden wins, President Donald Trump would be the first incumbent to be denied a second term since Bill Clinton ousted George H.W. Bush in 1992.

A word of caution: These forecasts all conclude that Biden is heavily favored. But Trump's chances of winning are not zero. Indeed, most presidential forecasts in 2016 indicated that Hillary Clinton was favored over Trump. But Trump ended up outperforming his polling in Pennsylvania and the upper Midwest, which punched his ticket to the White House.


Note: The percentages refer to the candidate's chance of winning the Electoral College vote.


The Economist — "Our final pre-election forecast is that Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college." 

Biden: 97% | Trump: 3%


The Progress Campaign — "Joe Biden is Very Likely to win the electoral college."

Biden: 89.7% | Trump: 10.3%


FiveThirtyEight — "Biden is favored to win the election."

Biden: 89% | Trump: 10%


JHK Forecasts — "Chance of an upset is about the odds of... picking an ace."

Biden: 91.4% | Trump: 8.6%


POLITICO — "We think the 2020 presidential race leans toward Democrat Joe Biden as the favorite."

(No percentages)