Early voting surge could decide outcome of tight NJ governor’s race

NEW JERSEY - With over one million New Jersey voters casting ballots early or by mail, political observers say the state’s razor-thin governor’s race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli could hinge on turnout, and how those early votes break.

'Democratic advantage'

Political analyst and author Steve Adubato tells FOX 5 NY that the early voting numbers give Democrats a slight edge heading into Election Day. "I think most of them are Democrats," Adubato said of early voters. "I’m not sure if they mostly all voted for Mikie Sherrill, but I’ll say this, it is a Democratic advantage."

New Jersey currently has about 800,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, a fact that Adubato said could prove decisive in a race that polls show is "a complete toss-up."

SKIP TO: Who is winning the NJ elections?

What do New Jerseyans care about?

Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and current congresswoman, has made affordability the cornerstone of her campaign, an issue resonating deeply across the state

"If there’s something that’s really upsetting you, I want you to know I’m staying up at night as your governor, thinking about it too," Sherrill a crowd of mostly Latino voters, pledging to "deliver opportunity for people across this state."

Ciattarelli, meanwhile, pushed a message centered on quality of life and change, echoing his near-upset of Governor Phil Murphy in 2021. "This race is a race of two candidates who say they’re going to turn things around," Adubato said. "But it’s a lot more complex than that."

Trump’s shadow looms large

Adubato argued that national politics continue to shape the state’s local races, with President Donald Trump still influencing voter sentiment. "Donald Trump looms larger in this race than either of these two candidates or even Phil Murphy," he said.

"If Jack wins, you’re going to hear Trump taking all the credit. If he loses, he’ll say it had nothing to do with him," Adubato added.

Is NJ a purple state?

While New Jersey has historically leaned Democratic, Adubato said that label no longer fits. "It’s actually not a blue state, it’s a purple state," he said. "It’s not as left-leaning or progressive as New York City. I think a Republican could get elected — I just don’t know if that’s this year."

He also pointed to history: the last time a party held the governor’s office for three consecutive terms was in 1965, a challenge Sherrill faces as she seeks to succeed the outgoing Democrat Murphy.

Who is winning the NJ election? 

Despite concerns about delayed results, Adubato expressed optimism that voters will know the winner by Tuesday night. "I hope, and I believe that by 10 p.m. we’ll know who the governor of the great state of New Jersey will be," he said.

But as for who that will be, Adubato stayed neutral. "Everyone who tells you they know who’s going to win is clueless," he said. "Don’t trust them. I don’t know."