Updated NYC forecast track shows nor'easter shifting closer to Tri-State area

NEW YORK CITY - A powerful early-season nor’easter developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast is threatening millions along the I-95 corridor with days of coastal flooding, battering waves and persistent, gusty winds.

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Nor'easter NYC: FOX Weather LIVE coverage

While the system's exact track into the weekend remains uncertain, the Northeast region is already feeling the brunt of increasing coastal hazards.

Weekend weather forecast NYC: Track uncertainty

What we know:

The severity and duration of rainfall, wind, and flooding for the I-95 urban corridor will depend heavily on the final track of the low-pressure center as it tracks north-east. Meteorologists are tracking three primary potential outcomes:

• New Jersey / Long Island track: If the low shifts closer to New Jersey or Long Island, heavy rain and the strongest wind gradients could move further south, putting New York City and surrounding coastal zones directly under significant impact.
• New England / Boston track: If the storm tracks further north toward southern New England, Boston and the Massachusetts coast would face the worst impacts, including 60 to 70 mph wind gusts, major storm surges, and localized flash flooding. The Mid-Atlantic would see lingering tidal flooding and breezy conditions.
• Offshore drift: If the low moves further east out to sea, heavy rain and severe winds will remain over open waters, though back-bay flooding and elevated surf will still linger along the coast.

Weather NYC Saturday: Forecast

Local perspective:

Here is how the developing storm is projected to impact the areas of Washington, D.C., Philadelphia and New York City.

New York City, Long Island weekend weather forecast

The New York City metropolitan area and Long Island are preparing for a prolonged period of adverse coastal weather starting Friday and lasting through the weekend:

• Wind and rain: NWS highlights a trend toward a significant coastal storm impacting the region Friday into Sunday. Prolonged gusty winds will build on Friday and peak early Sunday, accompanied by periods of rain.
• Tidal flooding: Widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is anticipated during high tide cycles Friday into Saturday. The highest threat for widespread moderate flooding targets southern Nassau County during Friday evening and Saturday morning high tides.
• Beach conditions: Dangerous rip currents and heavy surf are expected along local ocean beaches, leading to elevated beach erosion risks throughout the weekend.

New Jersey weekend weather forecast

Coastal New Jersey faces severe marine and coastal flooding hazards:

• Wind hazards: A wind advisory remains in effect along the coast of New Jersey through Friday evening for sustained winds of 25–35 mph and gusts up to 50 mph. A high wind watch has been issued for the same coastal zones from Friday night through Saturday. Inland areas can expect maximum wind gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph.
• Coastal flooding and marine warnings: A coastal flood warning covers the coast of New Jersey through Friday night. The NWS warns that multiple rounds of minor to moderate tidal flooding will impact the Delaware Bay, southern Raritan Bay, the tidal Delaware River, and back bays such as Barnegat Bay and Indian River Bay. Roadways in low-lying coastal areas may become impassable.
• Surf and erosion: High surf and a high risk of dangerous rip currents will persist through Saturday, with seas reaching 8 to 15 feet. Significant beach erosion and dune breaching remain top concerns along exposed beaches.

What is a nor'easter?

The backstory:

Despite popular belief, snow is not a requirement for a nor'easter.

A storm earns the title of "nor'easter" based on wind direction. If a strong low-pressure system off the Atlantic Ocean brings winds that blow from the northeast onto the coast, it's a nor'easter. If those winds are coming out of the east or southeast, it technically misses the definition—even if the impacts on land feel exactly the same.

Therefore, you can have a powerful nor'easter when temperatures are in the 50s. Instead of a blizzard, the region will just get battered by heavy rain and wind.

While they can happen at any time of year, nor'easters are most likely to occur between September and April, when the jet stream is stronger and more active.