Meaning behind a groundhog seeing its shadow

This weekend, New Yorkers will look to an unlikely source for their long-range weather forecast: a groundhog. 

Groundhog Day, held every Feb. 2, has been a staple of American folklore since 1886, when Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, hosted the first recorded ceremony. 

What happens when a groundhog sees its shadow?

The backstory:

According to tradition, if the groundhog sees its shadow, winter will last for six more weeks; if no shadow appears, spring will arrive early.

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Over the decades, dozens of groundhogs – and even a few alternative weather-predicting animals – have joined the annual forecasting festivities. 

About 79% of the time, Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, indicating more winter. If you'd prefer your winter forecast to come from a more northern woodchuck, you can look to Charles G. Hogg also known as "Staten Island Chuck." Over the past decade, Chuck has only seen his shadow once. 

How accurate is Groundhog Day?

By the numbers:

While many groundhogs make predictions, few can match Staten Island Chuck’s track record. Chuck resides at the Staten Island Zoo, where he has been forecasting the weather since 1981. Over the past two decades, Chuck has achieved an 85% accuracy rate, placing him ahead of all other U.S. groundhogs.

Punxatawney Phil's prediction record last 10 years (FOX Weather)

Punxatawney Phil's prediction record last 10 years. (FOX Weather)

Chuck’s predictions are based on whether he sees his shadow at the zoo’s annual Groundhog Day ceremony. In 2024, he forecasted an early spring, aligning with Phil for the first time in years. This marked the ninth consecutive year Chuck failed to see his shadow – a streak that has made many New Yorkers hopeful for milder winters.

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Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow Sunday on Groundhog Day?

If the weather-predicting groundhog sees his shadow, it allegedly means six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, it means an early spring. However, Punxsutawney Phil’s winter prognoses have only been right about 39% of the time.

How Does Chuck Compare to Other Groundhogs?

Across the nation, various groundhogs vie for meteorological supremacy. Here’s how Chuck measures up to some of his competitors:

  • Staten Island Chuck (NY): 85% accuracy
  • General Beauregard Lee (GA): 80% accuracy
  • Lander Lil (WY, Prairie Dog Statue): 75% accuracy
  • Malverne Mel (NY): 55% accuracy
  • Holtsville Hal (NY): 50% accuracy
  • Punxsutawney Phil (PA): 39% accuracy
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