New polls show Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by single digits in NJ governor's race

Mikie Sherrill: Meet the candidates for NJ governor

New Jersey Now sits down with Democratic gubernatorial candidate and NJ-11 congressional representative Mikie Sherrill. She explains her policies, including how she plans to bring costs down for New Jerseyans, plus dives into how Pres. Trump?s policies are affecting the state and her proposal to protect children from Big Tech.

New Jersey - Two new polls show New Jersey's Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mikie Sherrill with a single-digit lead over Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli. 

By the numbers:

The first poll, conducted for InsiderNJ by StimSight Research, shows Sherrill with a six-point lead over Ciattarelli. Specifically, the poll shows Sherill ahead 48%-42% among probable voters. It was conducted between July 18 and July 24 with a sample size of 1,108 probable voters and a margin of error of +/- 3/3%.

It's worth noting that the group that commissioned the survey, InsiderNJ, is owned by Democratic National Committeeman John F.X. Graham, a top fundraiser for Sherill's campaign. The Democratic National Committee recently pledged to spend $1.5 million to help field operations for Sherill's campaign, as well.

The second poll, released in late July by Farleigh Dickinson University (FDU), shows Sherill with an eight-point lead over Ciattarelli among likely voters, 45%-37%. It was conducted between July 17 and July 23 and sampled 806 registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points. 

New Jersey governor race

Big picture view:

According to the StimSight Research poll, affordability (53%) and taxes (43%) are the two most pressing issues voters are concerned about going into November's election. Among voters who ranked affordability as one of their top issues, 36% say Sherill would do a better job tackling the issue, while 34% say Ciattarelli would. Among those who ranked lowering taxes as one of their top issues, 50% say Ciattarelli would do a better job, while only 15% said Sherill.

Eight in 10, or 63% of those surveyed, say that it's time for a change in how New Jersey is run, with 55% strongly agreeing with this view. Both political parties are viewed negatively, with 58% of those surveyed reporting a negative view of the Democratic Party and 55% reporting a negative view of the Republican Party.

According to the Fairleigh Dickinson poll, registered Democrats and Republicans have largely lined up behind their candidates: 87% of Democrats say they'll likely vote for Sherill, and 86% say they'll likely vote for Ciattarelli. 

What they're saying:

"Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate," Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, and executive director of the FDU Poll, said in a statement. "While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win."

Dig deeper:

The survey included an experiment designed to measure the impact of framing around national or local issues on the race.

After first being asked which candidate they would vote for, respondents were randomly assigned a series of questions either about local issues like flooding and energy, or a series of questions about national issues, like immigration and President Trump. Then, they were asked about their preference in the governor's race again. While most didn't change their answer about who they would be voting for, some did, and the differences reveal the effects that framing would likely have on the race.

Asking questions about local issues didn't significantly change preferences among Democrats or Republicans, but it did increase support for Ciattarelli among independents by 7%. Similarly, asking questions about national issues decreased support for Ciattarelli among independents by 4%.

"There’s a reason why Ciattarelli is focusing so much on local issues, and trying not to talk about President Trump," Cassino said. "The more nationalized this race is, the worse Ciattarelli does overall, even as it helps him a bit among Republicans."

"Ciattarelli is walking a fine line with Trump: he needs to consolidate Trump supporters, but do so without making the race too national, or turning off voters who don’t like what’s happening in Washington," he added. "For Sherrill, on the other hand, there’s no downside to bashing Trump as much as she likes."