New NJ governor poll shows Sherrill, Ciattarelli in dead heat before Election Day

NJ gubernatorial race: New polls released

FOX 5 NY's Sharon Crowley provides an update on the New Jersey gubernatorial race, including a breakdown of two new polls released today.

NEW YORK - With just days before voters head to the polls, the race for New Jersey governor remains a dead heat.

By the numbers:

A new Emerson College Polling survey of likely voters finds Democrat Mikie Sherrill narrowly leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli 49% to 48%, with 2% still undecided. 

Undecided voters

When those undecided voters are accounted for, Sherrill’s support ticks up to 50%, while Ciattarelli holds steady at 48%.

Men vs women voters

 (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Dig deeper:

"Heading into Election Day, the gender divide in the gubernatorial election has solidified: men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. "Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherrill’s lead among women grew by eight points."

WESTVILLE, NEW JERSEY - OCTOBER 11: Democratic candidate for New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill speaks to a crowd alongside Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, in Westville New Jersey on Saturday, October 11, 2025. Sherrill is set to square off against

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Both candidates remain equally polarizing among likely voters. Sherrill and Ciattarelli each hold split favorability ratings, 47% view Sherrill favorably and 47% unfavorably, while Ciattarelli’s numbers are 48% favorable to 48% unfavorable.

How do New Jerseyans feel about Trump, Murphy?

Republican Jack Ciattarelli, left, will face Democrat Phil Murphy, the incumbent, in the race for governor of New Jersey. (AP Photos)

Meanwhile, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy’s job approval continues to lag, with just 34% approving of his performance and 50% disapproving. 

President Donald Trump holds a 45% approval and 53% disapproval among New Jersey voters.

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters before boarding Air Force One at Morristown Airport, Sunday, Sept. 14, 2025, in Morristown, N.J. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Voter loyalties are closely tied to views on the incumbent governor. Among those who approve of Murphy, 97% back Sherrill, while 91% of those who disapprove plan to vote for Ciattarelli. Voters neutral on Murphy break strongly for Sherrill, 79% to 12%.

When it comes to priorities, the economy dominates the conversation: 52% of voters say it’s the top issue facing New Jersey. Other key concerns include threats to democracy (14%), housing affordability (11%), immigration policy (5%), and healthcare (5%).

Methodology:

The survey included 1,000 New Jersey voters who either already voted or are very likely to vote. 

The results have a possible error range of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

Researchers adjusted the data to make sure it accurately reflects the state’s population by factors such as gender, age, race, education, political party, past voting history, and region, using information from the U.S. Census and voter records