Old Farmer's Almanac winter forecast: How much snow will NYC area get this year?

By
Published September 8, 2026 9:17 AM EDT
Loading Video…

This browser does not support the Video element.

What snow looks like throughout NYC area ahead of blizzard

Here's a look at the "calm" before the storm in New York and New Jersey as millions brace for a once-in-a-decade blizzard.

The Brief

    • New York City is expected to see above-average temperatures and slightly below-normal snowfall this winter.
    • Expect the coldest and snowiest stretches to hit during early-to-mid January and early-to-late February.
    • A strong El Niño is the primary driver of the milder temperatures.

NEW YORK CITY - New Yorkers bracing for winter can expect a reprieve from extreme, prolonged freezing this year.

What we know:

The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts a season characterized by above-normal temperatures and slightly below-average precipitation and snowfall for New York City, along with its surrounding counties.

"Above normal is relative," the Almanac reminds readers. "While it won’t be as cold as usual, it’s still winter!"

Last winter, one major snow storm brought over 18 inches to parts of New York City and more than 27 inches to the surrounding area.

When to expect cold and snow

Timeline:

Don't put away your winter gear just yet. The Almanac predicts several specific windows where winter will strike the New York City region the hardest.

  • Biggest temperature drops: Early to mid-December, early to mid-January, and both early and late February.
  • Prime snow chances: Late November, early and mid-January, early and late February, and late March.

What are the biggest snowstorms in NYC area history?

Could this weekend's storm make history? It's still unclear how much will actually fall, but it's been years since the New York City region's last record-setting snow.

What’s shaping the forecast

Dig deeper:

The Old Farmer's Almanac says these signs of the season are already appearing, and helped them shape this year's winter outlook:

  • Return of El Niño: The transition to a strong El Niño means warmer Pacific waters are altering the jet stream, largely shielding the East Coast from persistent deep freezes.
  • Wildcard Polar Vortex: Despite the mild baseline, a southward disruption of the Polar Vortex could funnel punishing, short-lived Arctic air directly into New York.
  • Shifting Sun and Sea: Solar Cycle 25 is weakening, which removes a warming variable from the atmosphere. Simultaneously, high-altitude wind shifts (the QBO) and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could inject sudden moisture and storm activity into the Pacific jet stream, eventually reaching the East Coast.

The Source: Information from this article was sourced from the Old Farmer's Almanac Winter Weather Forecast 2026–2027.

New York CityWeatherWinter Weather