Why are rising costs weighing so heavily on New Jersey voters?

NEW YORK - Do you feel like you can't leave your house these days without spending at least $100? You're not imagining it. The cost of living in the United States has skyrocketed in recent years. 

According to the latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the cost of living has risen by more than 30% since 2019. 

Across the Mid-Atlantic region—spanning New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C.—the combined cost of living averages 13.38% above the national baseline, ranging from Pennsylvania at 2.8% below average to Washington, D.C. at 38.8% above, according the latest data from World Population Review. 

This regional cost squeeze is fueling a wave of economic anxiety that is redefining candidate viability and voter priorities across key Mid-Atlantic battlegrounds.

‘Jersey pragmatism’ and the high cost of suburban politics

Local perspective:

In New Jersey, for example, which has the highest average property tax burden in the United States, this financial strain has given rise to a sharp voter mentality, according to Dr. Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University. She said that voters here tend to support progressive social values right up until the point they carry a higher price tag. 

"New Jerseyans are for it as long as you don't tax them or charge them for it. ... That is kind of this third rail in New Jersey politics that is very hard to address." She referred to this as "Jersey pragmatism." 

That dynamic was central to the 2025 gubernatorial race where Democrat Mikie Sherrill secured her decisive victory, in part by anchoring her campaign to a message of everyday affordability.

That fiscal tension is particularly notable in New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, which is widely viewed as a regional bellwether in this year's midterm elections, according to The Cook Political Report. Republican U.S. Representative Tom Kean Jr. faces a tight contest against Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett in a district defined by suburban social leanings and a voter base fiercely protective of its bottom line, according to Koning.

Because of that deep-seated attitude, winning over protective suburban voters requires far more than generic campaign promises of tax cuts, according to Dr. Benjamin Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University. Years of rising bills have made these voters skeptical of grand economic promises from either side of the aisle, he said. 

"I think the public is largely cynical," Dworkin said. "You get candidates [saying], 'I'm gonna cut your taxes . . . 25%, 20%.' Everybody goes, 'Yeah, yeah.' They don't necessarily believe it."

Cost-cutting on Long Island 

FOX 5 NY's Jodi Goldberg spoke with Long Island residents last month about how they're dealing with surging crude oil prices, specifically because market volatility directly translates into painful spikes in home heating oil bills heading into the colder months.

"I keep the house on 60 (degrees) and I wear a sweater," one woman said. 

Another woman said she's cut back on getting her nails done, one man said he tries to do less driving and a third woman said she doesn't shop for clothing as much. 

"We're cutting back on our heat because of the oil prices and everything, and grocery shopping," a fourth woman said. 

Kitchen-table anxiety in the Philadelphia suburbs

Across the Delaware River in Southeastern Pennsylvania's crucial suburban collar counties, the same financial fatigue exists and is eroding local political coalitions.

Even though Pennsylvania's overall cost of living index sits slightly below the national baseline, suburban families face acute pressure from rising mortgage rates, elevated grocery prices and utility rate hikes. Statewide voter tracking from the Franklin & Marshall College Poll consistently shows that economic concerns—specifically inflation, utility bills, housing costs and food prices—rank as the single most important issue facing Pennsylvanians, overriding party lines.

According to Dr. David Ramadan, professor of practice at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, these daily expenses directly dictate how non-aligned voters evaluate candidates.

"The independent voter is paying $4 for gas," he said. "The independent voter is [paying] more for eggs and chicken and food and everything else. The independent voter is going to have to pay 6% for a mortgage versus 2% and 3% a few years ago. All of that's going to count."

Zooming into Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District—which encompasses Bucks County and parts of Montgomery County—that statewide economic pressure is put to the ultimate test. In this key House battleground, tracked on Ballotpedia and rated by The Cook Political Report, Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick faces Democratic challenger Bob Harvie as suburban middle-income voters weigh daily cost-of-living concerns against national political messaging.

Cost-of-living mechanics in the Capital suburbs

Further south, political scientists and election analysts track that same voter sentiment playing out across the D.C. suburbs, from suburban Maryland to Northern Virginia's exurbs. 

In Maryland, the latest survey data from the UMBC Institute of Politics Poll shows that economic worry spans party lines, with 81% of likely voters rating the state's economic conditions as poor or fair. Even more striking, 94% of voters identify the rising costs of everyday goods and services as their central concern. 

"The widespread economic concerns cross-cut everything," Dr. Mileah Kromer, director of the UMBC Institute of Politics said. "It cross-cuts race, it cross-cuts region, gender, age, all of those things. Everyone across the board is really concerned about economic issues."

Earlier in her remarks, Kromer pointed to public opinion data showing how strongly voters prioritize the economy: "They [voters] are telling our pollsters every time we call that that is the number one issue on their minds."

Across the Potomac River in Northern Virginia, that same financial friction plays out in high-stakes suburban battlegrounds like Virginia's 7th Congressional District, where Democratic incumbent Eugene Vindman faces Republican challenger Douglas Ollivant. Tracked by Ballotpedia and rated as a key race by The Cook Political Report, the exurban district serves as a prime testing ground for regional sentiment. Cook’s nonpartisan race ratings assess competitiveness based on factors including district political makeup, candidate strengths and weaknesses and the state and national political climate, placing races on a seven-point scale ranging from "Solid" to "Toss Up."

Statewide survey data from the VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll confirms that cost-of-living concerns rank as the primary focus for Virginia voters—with 30% citing inflation and daily expenses as their top issue. Meanwhile, reporting on competitive outer-ring suburban districts like VA-07 tracked by Ballotpedia highlights that rising household expenses heavily influence candidate priorities and voter focus across the district.

The common denominator

What's next:

Taken together, the political landscape across the Mid-Atlantic is dominated by everyday economic concerns. From New Jersey to Pennsylvania and into the outer-ring exurbs of the D.C. metropolitan area, voters consistently point to the daily friction of elevated grocery bills, housing costs and climbing utility rates as the single most powerful force shaping their behavior.