Nor'easter or not: Will NYC, NJ see a major storm this weekend?
NEW YORK CITY - Nor'easter . . . or not in NYC?
JUMP TO: EUROPEAN MODEL l GFS MODEL l AUDREY PUENTE
- MORE: NYC, NJ weather: Forecast timeline, what to expect as fall nor'easter develops
- MORE: Tracking the nor'easter: Coastal flooding, high winds threaten East Coast this weekend
- MORE: What is a nor'easter? How they form and what to expect
Forecast models showing a nor'easter for the New York City area this weekend have been making the rounds on social media. But in reality, that's only one model.
Here's what both models, and FOX 5 NY's Audrey Puente, are saying about this weekend.
About the two models
In the U.S., the two most popular models you'll see mentioned on social media are the Global Forecast System (GFS), also colloquially known as "The American Model", and the model run by the ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, colloquially known as "The European" model, or "Euro" for short.
Photo credit: FOX Weather
NOAA runs the GFS with support from several other U.S. research and government entities. The ECMWF is based in England but is a private consortium supported by 34 European countries.
There are different models run by government weather agencies, but the Euro and GFS are the two you'll hear about most often.
What is the American model saying?
The GFS Model keeps the low farther out to sea. If this happens, New York City will largely remain on the outskirts of the storm, experiencing breezy conditions and some rain, but avoiding the worst of the flooding.
What is the European model saying?
The European Model brings the low closer to the shore as a stronger storm. If the storm shifts closer to New Jersey, NYC will be directly in the path for heavy rain, 50 mph wind gusts, and major storm surge.
Regardless of the final track, forecasts agree that persistent waves and high astronomical tides will cause significant dune damage and structural flooding along Long Island and Queens coastlines.
What is FOX 5 NY's Audrey Puente saying?
A strong northeast wind flow will continue to build over the next few days along the New York, New Jersey and Connecticut coasts, resulting in higher-than-normal high tides and even 12-foot waves.
Combined with a full moon Saturday, that means coastal flooding and significant beach erosion will be threats this weekend, even if the nor'easter doesn't become a blockbuster rainstorm.