High fuel and turnpike costs weigh on New York and New Jersey voters for 2026

NEW YORK - Over the last year, national average retail gas prices increased by approximately 40% to 45% depending on where you live in the United States, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

In the Northeast specifically, prices have surged 30.5% as of August, caused mainly by regional energy shortages and the cascading geopolitical effects of the war in Iran, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In fact, overall commuter costs in the Northeast, which include things like tolls, parking fees and more, are among the highest in the nation, putting a significant financial burden on daily workers. 

How rising transit costs are shaping Mid-Atlantic midterms

NJ Turnpike sticker shock:

Because gas prices are so high in this part of the country, several political scientists up and down the Mid-Atlantic say that transportation costs are top of mind for voters in the area heading into the 2026 midterms. 

The reason gas prices are a unique indicator of voter behavior, is that for frequent drivers, they're seeing those numbers broadcast in giant, illuminated numbers on every street corner every day, according to Dr. John Kennedy, professor of political science at West Chester University.

"Going to the gas station, or just driving by a gas station and seeing the digital signs, is going to be a continued reminder of how things are going," he said. "So there's no way to run and hide from that." 

By the numbers:

Think of the commuters along the New Jersey Turnpike corridor and the financial realities of high local property taxes – New Jersey in particular has the highest average property tax burden in the United States – and skyrocketing utility rates. Earlier this year, for example, the Empire Center's Energy Data Bulletin revealed that New Yorkers faced the third-highest residential electricity rates in the nation. 

For suburban commuters who rely on daily highway trips into Manhattan or Jersey City, $4 per gallon of gas has shifted from a brief price spike into a persistent reality, which means every routine tank fill has become a significant line item on the monthly household budget. 

Dr. Benjamin Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University, sees that cost hitting drivers directly on his own daily drive to work.

"The cheapest I found was $4.19," Dworkin said, referring to local gas prices. "That used to be 75 cents cheaper last year. So that cost when you've got to fill up your minivan to take your kids around, that's a real issue."

"If you make a million dollars on Wall Street, it affects you too, but you can handle it a lot easier than the single mom who's making $45,000 a year," he added.

Limited transit, long commutes magnify gas costs further west

In Pennsylvania, fuel sensitivity takes on a different shape, as suburban and rural voters drive longer distances into Philadelphia and its surrounding hubs with less reliable and readily available public transit options.

By the numbers:

Take, for example, the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), which serves the Greater Philadelphia metropolitan area. Despite being the 6th largest U.S. transit system, it faces a recurring $192 million structural shortfall in its daily operating budget due to federal pandemic relief exhaustion. This has led to fare increases and service reductions, making the commuters in the area more reliant on cars, and thus high gas prices, to get around. 

And for rural voters further out in the state, high gas prices are even more top of mind. According to the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, rural bus systems, like the Area Transportation Authority of North Central Pennsylvania, rely on flexible "call-a-bus" routes rather than fixed schedules because populations are so spread out.

Dr. Christopher Borick, professor of political science at Lehigh University, explained that long-distance driving makes fuel prices an immediate priority across the state's swing districts.

"Rural voters are going to be just as likely as urban voters right now to go to those affordability issues at the top of the list ... rural Pennsylvanians feel it even more so. They drive more ... They have to fill up gas [more] to get around. So something like that might hit harder in a daily life."

Pocketbook pressure builds along the Beltway

Moving further south along the I-95 corridor, the same pocketbook anxiety shapes political behavior among independent voters navigating the congested beltways surrounding Washington D.C., according to Dr. David Ramadan, professor of practice at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. 

According to him, independent voters in Northern Virginia treat fuel and grocery prices as a direct test of the current administration.

By the numbers:

The area is one of the most expensive places to live in the United States – regional price levels sit at nearly 9% above the national average, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The disparity is even starker in housing, where local costs run more than 50% higher than the national baseline. 

"If the election was to happen today, the independent voter is paying $4 for gas. The independent voter is [paying] more for eggs and chicken and food and everything else ... All of that's going to count," Ramadan said. "He or she's going to blame the current administration for it … This is not a trend. This is a reaction of the reality on the ground."

Fueling voter decisions dollar by dollar

What's next:

Whether voters are driving the New Jersey Turnpike toward Manhattan, trekking from Central Pennsylvania into Philadelphia or battling the ever-present I-95 traffic into the nation's capital, gas prices are top of mind for Mid-Atlantic residents, who are forming their opinions every day while they watch the numbers tick up dollar by dollar.