AP-NY--BTV-NY NE Area Forecast Discussion, NY
000
FXUS61 KBTV 151414
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND LESS HUMID AIR. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1014 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE GOING FORECAST
TO ADJUST TEMPS FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. COLD FRONT
WHICH BROUGHT ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN LAST
NIGHT HAS EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF LOW CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND. WHERE CEILINGS ARE LOW (BELOW 1500 FT)
THERE'S LIKELY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE STILL HANGING AROUND SO
MENTIONED A FEW HOURS OF THAT MAINLY ACROSS THE DACKS AND
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE GREEN MTN SPINE. SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT EXPECT BY THE AFTERNOON IT SHOULD BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY FROM
THIS MORNINGS CHILLY LOWS, WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID JULY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 427 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON THURSDAY AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY
CALM WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION FOG TO FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF EASTERN
AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...AS WELL AS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. EXPECTING FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MORE FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECTING LOWS TONIGHT TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S
WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECTING THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 442 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP US IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH IT'S WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...NOW DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER AT MPV AND RUT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS RIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN AFTER
ABOUT 00Z AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY...EXCEPT PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING AT
MPV/SLK BETWEEN 07Z-11Z WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 427 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS MORNING FOR NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
AND WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 1
TO 2 FEET. THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...WGH
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 10:15AM EDT