AP-NY--ALB-NY E Area Forecast Discussion, NY

000

FXUS61 KALY 151326

AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY

926 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SWEEP

THROUGH OF ALL OUR REGION BY NOON. IT WILL ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY

WINDS LOW CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY FALL

FOR AWHILE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TONIGHT AND

REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 915 AM EDT...A STRONG SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS JUST

SLIPPED SOUTH OF ALBANY. TEMPERATURES WENT FROM 72 SHORTLY BEFORE

800 AM TO 64 AFTER 900 AM WITH A GUSTY WIND OVER 20 MPH. ONE

THING MISSING WITH THIS COLD FRONT IS ANY REAL CONVECTION.

MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. AN IMPRESSIVE CUT OFF LOW WAS SINKING WELL TO

OUR SOUTH WITH AN IMPRESSIVE MCS BRINGING EPIC RAINFALL TO

PORTIONS OF SOUTH JERSEY. THIS FEATURE HAS OBVIOUSLY "ROBBED"

MOISTURE FROM THE COLD FRONT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...LOTS OF CHANGES. HAD TO REDO THE DIURNAL

TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO CATCH THE BIG TEMPERATURE DROP.

ALSO...LOWERED SOME TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...AT

LEAST ONE CATEGORY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO

FILTER INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHERLY WIND WITH DEW POINTS

DROPPING INTO THE 50S TODAY AND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS

SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY THIS EVENING. ALSO CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO

INCREASING SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTH BREEZE WILL

KEEP A COOL FEEL TO THE DAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM A COOL MID 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN

ADIRONDACKS...MID 70S LOCALLY IN GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND

SURROUNDING AREAS...TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY

INTO NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH

ITS PASSAGE THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH

DRIER ONE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD

ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN

THE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL

DISTRICT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WERE

HIGH AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SO ANY STORM WILL BE

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALSO FLOW ACROSS THE

AREA REMAINS WEAK SO THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN

TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHERLY WIND WITH DEW POINTS

DROPPING INTO THE 50S TODAY AND EVEN INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS

SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY THIS EVENING. ALSO CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO

INCREASING SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM A COOL MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE

WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY

INTO NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM

CANADA. EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS MAINLY THE

HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. WITH LIGHT TO CALM

WIND AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN

VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FAIR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD

PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY.

WHILE ALOFT THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.

THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S

ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JULY. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED

TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT THURSDAY WITH

LOWS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY'S NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS THE SURFACE HIGH

SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S. EXPECTING

SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A SHORT WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW

FRIDAY NIGHT SO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ALTHOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM

PERIOD...PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND ANY ONE

PARTICULAR LOCATION WON/T SEE A LONG DURATION WASHOUT THROUGH THE

ENTIRE PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION

FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE

SITUATED CLOSE TO THE REGION AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO

FEATURES COULD ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR NORTHERN AREAS...PRIMARILY

DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STILL TOO

EARLY TO SPECULATE ON JUST HOW STRONG ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY

COULD BE...AS THERE MAY BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT

THANKS TO SURFACE HEATING...ALTHOUGH 0-6 BULK SHEAR AMOUNTS LOOK

TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED. TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS

IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

HEIGHTS WILL RISE SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS

ALOFT. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THESE

DAYS...ESP FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...THANKS TO A NEARBY

STALLED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY AROUND

5.5 TO 6 DEGREES C/KM AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES MAINLY 25 KTS OR

LESS...IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR ANY STORMS TO GET VERY STRONG ON SUNDAY

INTO MONDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL

BE WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWS IN THE

MID TO UPPER 60S. IT WILL BE MUGGY AS WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS WELL

INTO THE 60S AS WELL.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO

CROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE

BEST CHANCE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS

STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WITH THE VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AHEAD OF

THIS FEATURE...THERE COULD POTENTIALLY BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH

ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. DRIER AND

LESS HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO OCCUR TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK

BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS 12Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT JUST CROSSED KALB. THE WINDS HAVE

INCREASED OUT OF THE NORTH. CIGS WERE LOW MVFR...AND OCCASIONALLY

WILL DIP TO IFR THROUGH 14Z. IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KPOU FOR

SEVERAL FOR MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF

THE MORNING.

THE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED TO THE N-NW AT KGFL AND WILL DO SO

AT KPOU KPSF.

IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR BEHIND THE

FRONT...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU. BY AFTERNOON ALL THE TAFS WILL BE VFR

WITH SCT CU BASES AROUND 3500 FEET. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL

CONTINUE BUT PROBABLY NOT AS GUSTY.

THE SKY WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE NORTH WIND DIMINISHING.

A LINGERING BREEZE AND DECREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT

WILL NEED TO WATCH SINCE IT COULD DEVELOP DUE TO LOCAL TERRAIN

EFFECTS. FOR NOW...DID ADD MVFR FOG TO THE KGFL TAF ONLY AND MIFG

(SHALLOW) WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TO THE REMAINING TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

FRI NIGHT-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH

ITS PASSAGE THE HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH

DRIER ONE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD

ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN

THE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL

DISTRICT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE

HIGH AROUND 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SO ANY STORM WILL BE

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALSO FLOW ACROSS THE

AREA REMAINS WEAK SO THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS.

FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE

DOMINATES. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH

PRECIPITATION MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED

AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE

ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR

WEBSITE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

OUR RADAR /KENX/ IS OUT OF SERVICE WITH PARTS ON EMERGENCY ORDER.

THE RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN AT LEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.

NY...NONE.

MA...NONE.

VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IAA

NEAR TERM...IAA

SHORT TERM...IAA

LONG TERM...FRUGIS

AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV

FIRE WEATHER...IAA

HYDROLOGY...IAA

EQUIPMENT...

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 9:26AM EDT