Texas’ 2026 Senate race: What to know about Ken Paxton vs James Talarico

The race for the U.S. Senate in Texas, which has become one of the most expensive nonpresidential races in history, could end with a Democrat taking a seat that has long been considered a Texas stronghold, polls suggest. 

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, is facing state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, for a seat currently being held by U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.

Big picture view:

Polls as recently as the week leading into early voting have shown the race in a dead heat. With the candidates flip-flopping over who was leading earlier in the year, Talarico has maintained a lead since August. That lead has sometimes been only a point, well within the margin or error, but it has been as high as six points at various points over the past two months. 

Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, making the seat a long-standing Republican stronghold. However, divisions from the Republican primary have created divides among moderate suburban voters. 

After months of polls showing a tight race between the two candidates, suggesting the possibility that the seat could flip blue, President Donald Trump has made three visits to the state in the two months leading up to early voting to campaign for Republicans, including Paxton. 

Texas is one of the tight Senate races this year that could upset the balance of power that Republicans currently hold in that chamber.

Meet the Candidates:

Republican Ken Paxton

Paxton has served as the state’s attorney general since 2015. He secured the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate race by defeating Cornyn in the primary runoff, backed by an endorsement from Trump, whom he called a "true MAGA warrior."

Based on his campaign website, Paxton’s legislative agenda centers on advancing Trump’s "America First" policies across several key areas. He frames border security as a top priority, saying that while President Joe Biden was in office, Paxton sued the Biden administration more than 100 times, including to put an end to what he called Biden’s "disastrous open borders policies." He calls for the completion of the border wall, enforcement of national sovereignty and implementation of widespread deportations of illegal aliens. 

He advocates reducing the national debt by cutting wasteful federal spending that he says has led to a $36 trillion dollar national debt and fighting to cut taxes. He wants to lower inflation and roll back regulations on American energy producers, revitalize domestic manufacturing and establish a "pro-growth" regulatory framework to support cryptocurrency innovation and make the U.S. a leader in digital assets, which his website characterizes as one of the "defining frontiers changing the world" in which the U.S. cannot afford to fall behind. He says empowering cryptocurrency innovators is critical to ensuring the nation’s "long-term competitiveness and leadership."   

Working with Trump’s "Make America Healthy Again" campaign, he emphasizes taking on corporate healthcare and the food industry to boost transparency, address chronic illness and prioritize health over profits. 

Paxton strongly opposes progressive social policies, claiming the radical left is "determined to undermine our conservative values," and says too often there are "RINO Republicans willing to help them do so." He says he wants to fight an "unprecedented assault on our Constitutional freedoms," calling for the protection of Second Amendment gun rights, the defense of anti-abortion policies and defeating what he calls the "radical transgender movement" that includes transgender participation in women’s sports and gender ideology in schools. He also supports an "America First" foreign policy that focuses on national interests and "peace through strength" over foreign aid spending. 

The term RINO stands for "Republican in name only," a pejorative used to indicate someone who affiliates with the party but is said to be disloyal to the party. 

Democrat James Talarico

Talarico, a former public middle school teacher, has served as a Texas state representative since 2018. His campaign website states his platform focuses on systemic democratic reform and rebalancing the economy to support working families.

He advocates for an anti-corruption agenda that includes banning super PACs, corporate PACs, and congressional stock trading, as well as establishing term limits and strict ethics codes for both Congress and Supreme Court justices. Economically, he proposes making large corporations and high earners pay their fair share by raising corporate tax rates and closing wealth loopholes to fund targeted middle-class relief, such as an expanded Child Tax Credit, a $15 federal minimum wage, caps on prescription drug and housing costs, and protected funding for Social Security and Medicare.

In education and healthcare, Talarico emphasizes expanding public access while lowering out-of-pocket expenses. He opposes private school voucher programs, advocating instead for universal Pre-K, higher teacher pay, increased mental health counselors, and evidence-based literacy programs.

On healthcare, he supports creating a public Medicare option open to all ages, curbing price-gouging on lifesaving medications, and ending aggressive medical debt collection practices. He also prioritizes protecting rural hospitals, fully funding veterans' health services, and federally codifying Roe v. Wade to protect access to reproductive care, contraception, and IVF.

His platform centers on civil liberties, religious neutrality, and community support. He opposes book bans and political censorship while advocating for the federal protection of LGBTQ+ marriage rights and the legal, regulated sale of adult-use marijuana. 

As a Presbyterian seminary student, he strongly supports the separation of church and state, opposes the integration of religious material into public classrooms while defending broad religious freedom through the Do No Harm Act. He advocates implementing federal paid family leave, expanding access to affordable childcare, and increasing home- and community-based eldercare options for seniors.

On immigration, he calls for comprehensive reform that combines enhanced border security and advanced technology at ports of entry to combat fentanyl smuggling with earned pathways to citizenship for "DREAMers" and long-term residents. His public safety approach focuses on addressing the root causes of crime through mental health and youth investments alongside gun safety measures like universal background checks and age restrictions on semi-automatic rifles. To support energy needs, he advocates diversifying energy production through both traditional and renewable sources, weatherproofing the power grid, requiring AI data centers to pay for their own infrastructure upgrades, and strengthening clean air and water protections.

What Paxton is Saying:

Paxton calls his opponent "the most radical Democrat in Texas history," but also the most well-funded. 

He told supporters back in September that he will fight to preserve the American dream. 

"James Talarico is running to destroy it. He is a democratic socialist who never met a tax increase he didn't love," he said. 

He said Talarico voted to tax income in Texas, tax tips and overtime and to even tax Social Security. 

"California already has two senators. It doesn't need a third," he said.

Paxton’s campaign site accuses Talarico of embracing "far-left positions that are completely out of step with Texas values, including promoting the idea that there are multiple genders beyond biological reality, supporting policies that weaken border security, and advocating for radical gender ideology and LGBTQ-focused content in schools." 

Paxton accused Talarico, who he accused of trying to remake Texas into California or New York, of being "obsessed with transitions."

"He wants to transition your kids. He wants to transition Texas off of oil and gas. How about we transition him and his crazy ideas right out of Texas?" he said. "If we lose Texas, we lose the common sense revolution. If we lose the common sense revolution, we lose America."

What Talarico is Saying:

Talarico, meanwhile, has called Paxton "corrupt."  

"I ran for office not to be served, but to serve. And then there's Ken Paxton," he said, speaking at a rally in May. "I have a legislative record. Ken Paxton has a criminal record. Ken Paxton, Ken Paxton is the most corrupt politician in America, and he belongs nowhere close to the United States Senate."

Talarico labeled Paxton "morally unfit for office" and said he "failed the character test." 

"He'll lie to you with a straight face. He's the most corrupt attorney general in our lifetimes, and he has put his own interests above the laws of Texas," he said. "They're going to call our movement on Texan un-American. They're going to call us a threat. The only truth out of all of those lies is that we are a threat. We're a threat to their corrupt system."

He said Republicans have been "stealing from the American people with their bribes, their bailouts and their billionaire tax breaks."

"They are stealing the wealth that we created. It's why everything sucks right now. It's why, It's why everyone is so angry," he said. "And on Nov. 3, we're going to do something extraordinary. We're going to end 30 years of one-party rule in Texas and elect a senator who's going to serve all of us."

Dig deeper:

A Texas grand jury indicted Paxton on two counts of first-degree felony securities fraud and a lesser charge of failing to register as an investment advisor to a tech startup. He pleaded not guilty and the case was ultimately resolved without a criminal conviction. 

A judge in 2017 dismissed separate federal charges that had been brought against him the year before.

The Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach Paxton in 2023 on articles related to misuse of office and corruption, but the state’s Senate acquitted him of the impeachment articles. 

He was later ordered to pay $6.66 million to four former employees who sued his office under Texas whistleblower protections after they were fired for reporting Paxton to the FBI on allegations of bribery, abuse of office and using his position to help a real estate developer. 

By the numbers:

As of early October, ad spending in the race had reached $442 million, making it the second most expensive nonpresidential race on record, the ad tracking firm AdImpact said. 

That same research revealed Republicans were outspending Democrats, $326 million to $116 million. But the dramatically different totals spent do not necessarily seem to translate in outcomes to various political polls, the most recent of which have consistently shown Talarico ahead of Paxton. 

Rollercoaster polls show tight race

Polls conducted since June have shown the two flipping leads among voters. In early June, both candidates tied at 46% in one poll. Within days, other polls had Paxton ahead by one or two points. By late June, they were tied again at 47% each. 

Talarico jumped ahead the following month by a three-point margin, then maintained a small lead until early August, when Paxton bested him by a single point. Other August polls, however, showed Talarico ahead by three points, then six, then less than a single point.

Since September, Talarico has maintained the lead 11 consecutive polls, according to the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin and FOX Local reporting. 

In a FOX News poll that sampled 881 voters between Sept. 24 and Sept. 28, Talarico led Paxton 51 to 49%. Some polls included Libertarian Ted Brown as a response option or options like "wouldn’t vote" or "undecided." The FOX News poll did not. That poll had a margin of error of 3%. 

A New York Times and Siena Research poll of 615 Texas voters between Sept. 21 and Sept. 30, showed Talarico leading Paxton by six points, 51% to 45%. The same poll had both men tied at 47% in June.

The poll also asked which candidate they felt would be the better choice to handle a variety of issues, ranging from being an effective senator to dealing with the cost of living to healthcare. 

The poll found Talarico leading in six of the seven topics and in a dead tie with Paxton on the seventh. Talarico received the highest percentage for "doing what’s best for ordinary Texans," scoring 55% compared to Paxton’s 40%. Paxton’s scored highest on immigration, at 48%, which was the issue on which he and Talarico tied. The survey had a margin of error of 4.5%, which means some of the scores have a difference that falls within that margin. 

WATCH: TEXAS VOTERS REVEAL TOP ISSUES IN CRITICAL PAXTON-TALARICO US SENATE RACE

A July FOX News poll asked Texas voters to rank the issues they care most about. Inflation and high prices ranked the highest at 37%. A Texas Public Opinion Poll released in August found that half of likely voters ranked affordability and cost of living among their top two priorities for elected officials. The poll also found that voters believed Talarico would do more than Paxton to address cost-of-living issues, 48% to 38%.

Both candidates say their plans would help Texans cope with higher costs, but each offers a different game plan to target the problem. 

Paxton favors tax deductions, an expanded Child Tax Credit and permanent "Trump Accounts." 

Talarico is pushing higher wages, expanded tax credits, lower health care costs and action against corporations he says drive up prices. 

Beyond affordability, immigration/border security and healthcare rounded out the top three issues on voters minds as they prepare to walk into their polling places. 

What the Analysts Say:

The Hill’s White House Correspondent, Julia Manchester, told FOX News’ "Battle Ground" that since President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton over Cornyn, it caused division in the party. 

"Talking to Republican sources there, there still are a lot of hard feelings and there is this fear among Republicans that Ken Paxton, who is also very scandal prone, he's seen as a very controversial politician in Texas, even among Republicans, there's real questions as to whether he could beat someone like James Talarico," she said.

She said Texas, like other states, is being affected by the "national environment" fueled by gas prices, the war on Iran, tariffs and how they’re hitting Americans in the wallet. 

"It’s hitting Texas very, very hard," she said.

But "So What" Substack founder Chris Cillizza said this shift toward some Democrats in the midterm isn’t about voters "loving what the Democrats are talking about."

"In fact, if you look at most polling, the Democrats’ brand is actually in worse shape than the Republican brand and the Republican brand is not in good shape," he said. 

Voters, he said, "aren’t really running to Democrats but they are pulling back from Republicans," adding that any flip from red to blue will be more of a "repudiation of Donald Trump and Republicans" than some "affirmation of what the Democrats believe in." 

"The base of the party is not excited enough about Ken Paxton," he said. 

Mark Istook, the host of the More With Mark Istok podcast, told Battle Ground that Paxton has traditionally struggled to raise money. 

"I think part of the problem is that he’s not that popular with Republicans," Istook said. "A lot of people in his own party don’t like him very much." 

The people who do support him, however, are "fervent supporters," Istook says. They include MAGA Republicans, who love him, Istook said, because he has been "unafraid to sue the people they don’t love." 

"And you also have a lot of Republicans who may not be fans of his, but they're gonna vote for a Republican no matter what. So I that's part of the dynamic," Istook said.

What's next:

Early voting in Texas began on Monday. 

The general election is Nov. 3. 

 

 

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