NEW YORK (FOX 5 NEWS) - The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to flirt with 20,000 but it is having trouble crossing the line. So will we see the markets rise in 2017? Weeden & Co. Chief Investment Strategist Michael Purves says yes. He is bullish on the market and says his year-end price target on the S&P 500 is 2350, a modest gain.
In fact, Purves expects all three indexes (The Dow, The S&P 500, and the Nasdaq) to finish better this year than they did in 2016. He also expects to see some real growth in both GDP and wages, and thinks that will be part of a nice virtuous cycle that propels both the economy and the stock market forward.
Just don't expect the broad kind of rally we've gotten accustomed to. Purves thinks 2017 will be a much more dynamic year, so investors need to stay on their toes. He believes tech will be the least politically defined sector, and perhaps, one of the healthiest to be in. Purves says that might be a place to take out your good old-fashioned playbook and pick stocks that are trading at attractive valuations with good prospects going forward.
Watch out for stocks that have already been boosted by the Trump Trade. Bank stocks have risen significantly since the election. Purves thinks that will continue in the broader term.
But, he says, he is concerned about some of the industrial companies -- cement, steel or engineering --that might be exposed to fiscal spending on bridges, airports, and highways. If Trump's plans for infrastructure spending see resistance from Congress, those stocks may see an end to their run.
Purves says there's more political risk on this market than ever before, and he's keeping an eye on the Trump agenda.
One of the metrics he is going to be looking at most closely is Trump's approval rating. If the rating is high and stays high, Purves thinks Trump will push his agenda items through. If the rating starts slipping, we may see a lot more gridlock and the Trump agenda may get heavily watered down.
So will the Dow cross 20,000 in 2017? Purves says absolutely. But he also doesn't think it matters. Of all the charts he is following right now, he says that's the least important. It's a nice round number, but not a key market indicator.